By William Bahl:
quarterback Alex Smith. While New Orleans gives up 4.9 yards per carry in the run game, that stat is misleading.
49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman said the yards per carry is a result of innocuous 30-yard runs by the opposition at the end of blowout Saints wins. Also, the Saints’ run defense improved greatly in the second half of the season, when they smothered the likes of Michael Turner (39 yards), Chris Johnson (23 yards) and Adrian Peterson (60 yards).
Meanwhile the 49ers no longer possess the potent running attack that once saw Frank Gore rip off five straight games of 100 yards rushing or more. Gore hasn’t reached the century mark since Nov. 6.
But the Saints do allow yards in the passing game. New Orleans led the league in allowing pass plays of 40 yards or more with 14. Not only that, the blitz-mad Saints might be playing right into what Smith does best, and that’s beat pressure. Smith’s passer rating against the blitz this year is 96.3, which trails only Aaron Rodgers (131.4) and Tom Brady (110.9). Eight of his 17 touchdown passes and only one of his five picks were against the blitz.
Behind Smith, the 49ers are actually offensively potent at home. They averaged nearly 30 points (29.9) at home, which is fourth highest in the league.
Like Brees, Smith takes advantage of checks at the line and the ability to change the offense in the serene surroundings of friendly Candlestick Park.
“Obviously crowd noise plays into that, especially on third down when you’re trying to throw the ball on the road,” Smith said. “Anywhere you go you’re going to be dealing with crowd noise. So at home, to be able to use the cadence and be able to communicate a little easier, verbally obviously helps. I think that might play into it.”
Conversely, only 18 of Brees’ 46 touchdown passes have come on the road because much of what Brees does is make last-second adjustments before the snap, which, as Smith notes, are more difficult to make in loud stadiums.
The Saints, however, have been a good road team under Payton. Since his arrival in 2006, they’re 31-17 in the regular season — the same mark as they have at home — including a 5-3 record this year. But the numbers that count this week are 0-2.
“You win 13, 14 games now, and you’re trying to find something,” Payton said. “When you start playing well on the road and home, you’re probably a better team — and we’ve been able to do that. This will be a good challenge for us. Not just playing on the road, but traveling west.”
Two of their three road losses this season came at Tampa Bay (26-20) and St. Louis (31-21), who obviously weren’t as formidable as the 49ers, (7-1 in Candlestick this season) are expected to be.
In addition to the losses to the Bucs and Rams on the road, the Saints beat Carolina and Atlanta by three points each and Tennessee by just five. The Saints’ five lowest-scoring games this season have come on the road, with three of them coming outdoors.
“I haven’t really looked statistically at the indoor thing or the outdoor thing,” Payton said when asked about a difference in his team’s production indoors vs. outdoors. “I know a lot will be made of us playing on the road and the fact that the Saints haven’t won a road playoff game.
“Each week, we try to get ready and put our players in the best position and get them prepared for the environment we’re going to play in. I think we’ve traveled well. That comes with being a better team.”
Saints middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma agreed, saying, “I think it’s about executing, planning and doing what it takes to win the game.
“It just so happens it’s San Francisco,” he said. “They’re the No. 2 seed and have done a great job earning that spot and seed. You’re talking about two very good teams, so I don’t think it matters where we play.”
New Orleans is playing with a very hot offense right now. San Francisco will be unable to stand up to this offensive powerhouse. Take the moneyline bet with the Saints marching over the 49ers on Saturday.